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Napie's picture

The polls.. (post #50781)

Pollster John Zogby: "Palin is not to be underestimated. Her real strength is that she is authentic, a real mom, an outdoors person, a small town mayor (hey, she has dealt with a small town city council - that alone could be preparation for staring down Vladimir Putin, right?). She is also a reformer."


"A very important demographic in this election is going to be the politically independent woman, 15% of whom in our latest survey are undecided."


"In the final analysis, this election will be about Obama vs. McCain. Obama has staked out ground as the new JFK - a new generation, literally and figuratively, a new face of America to the world, a man who can cross lines and work with both sides. But McCain is the modern day Harry Truman - with lots of DC experience, he knows what is wrong and dysfunctional with Washington and how to fix it, and he has chosen a running mate who is about as far away from Washington as he could find.


"This contest is likely to be very close until the weekend before the election - then the dam may break and support may flood one way or the other."


The interactive survey shows that 22% of those voters who supported Democrat Hillary Clinton in their primary elections or caucus earlier this year are now supporting John McCain.


Among those who said they shop regularly at Wal-Mart - a demographic group that Zogby has found to be both "value" and "values" voters - Obama is getting walloped by McCain. Winning 62% support from weekly Wal-Mart shoppers, McCain wins these voters at a rate similar to what President Bush won in 2004. Obama wins 24% support from these voters.


Other demographic details are fairly predictable, showing that the McCain/Palin ticket heads into its convention on Monday with numbers that may fuel an optimism they may not have expected, and that many would not have predicted, especially after Obama's speech Thursday night.

Biscuit's picture

(post #50781, reply #1 of 109)

I just saw a poll - last hour, as a matter of fact, that was very interesting.


It had Obama/Biden leading McCain Palin - look at this - 48% to 40%.


Now, unless I'm imagining things - that says two things:


1.  Obama's numbers haven't actually gotten better, because he was at about 48% last week, wasn't he?


2.  McCain's numbers have DROPPED, because last week I believe he was at about 43-47% in most polls.


*******


I'm not sure I believe in polls at all, but that is not what I expected at all.


Statesmen will invent cheap lies, putting blame upon the nation that is attacked, and every man will be glad of those conscience-soothing falsities, and will diligently study them, and refuse to examine any refutations of them; and thus he will by and by convince himself that the war is just, and will thank God for the better sleep he enjoys after this process of grotesque self-deception.
- Mark Twain

"When a stupid man is doing something he is ashamed of, he always declares that it is his duty."  - George Bernard Shaw

kathymcmo's picture

(post #50781, reply #7 of 109)

Actually Obama's numbers have jumped, he an McCain were both in the low 40s, tied for statistical purposes.


But the national numbers don't mean that much, it's the state by state polls that count. Here  is a website that's updated daily and shows the current electoral count (Obama has more than enough to win). If you roll your cursor over each state you can see the latest polls for that state. If the election were today, even if VA went to McCain, Obama would still win.


http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Biscuit's picture

(post #50781, reply #9 of 109)

Oooo - thanks for the link! (G)


Wow - it's closer in Ohio than I thought it would be.


Statesmen will invent cheap lies, putting blame upon the nation that is attacked, and every man will be glad of those conscience-soothing falsities, and will diligently study them, and refuse to examine any refutations of them; and thus he will by and by convince himself that the war is just, and will thank God for the better sleep he enjoys after this process of grotesque self-deception.
- Mark Twain

"When a stupid man is doing something he is ashamed of, he always declares that it is his duty."  - George Bernard Shaw

Marie Louise's picture

(post #50781, reply #21 of 109)

The daily polls are out, Obama is doing much better (and McCain is doing worse.) The graph about halfway down the page is a thing of beauty to this Obama fan!!!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Also, click on the word Rasmussen for a discussion of national polls. Bush was never ahead more than 4 points.

Chuck Todd discussed how to translate these polls into the electoral college a few weeks ago. He said that a 2% lead in the average of national polls is significant, 3-4% is a "clear victory" and 6% is a LANDSLIDE.

As of today, Obama is at 6.4%.

samchang's picture

(post #50781, reply #22 of 109)

Yes, indeed! And Gallup's 9/2/08 poll has Obama clearing the 50% mark for the first time. They have him up 8%.

thecooktoo's picture

(post #50781, reply #23 of 109)

I would suggest caution in counting unhatched  chickens.  Remember, the results you are seeing now are the result of the very well theatrically presented Dem Convention last week.  Most pundits that I heard comment said they felt that Obama should end up the week with at least a 12-15 point lead.  He didn't.  Don't know why, but then of course the pundits could very well have been wrong.


Jim

samchang's picture

(post #50781, reply #24 of 109)

> . . . the results you are seeing now are the result of the very well theatrically presented Dem Convention last week.<

Yes. Of course these numbers were also taken after the theatrically presented unveiling of Sarah Palin as well. The short version is that sure there was a post-convention bump for Obama, but there also seems to be a post-Palin depression for McCain.

>Most pundits that I heard comment said they felt that Obama should end up the week with at least a 12-15 point lead.<

Those would, I believe, be McCain's numbers repeated by certain members of the media. And if you're the opposition, of course you want to give a number that is not realistically attainable in order to seem victorious in the face of losing numbers.

But I still get the feeling that this time it's different. McCain pulled statistically even with Obama because he made it a point to tell the voters who Obama is. The press and media and in many cases the public never had their attention focused on who John McCain is. What is problematic about this stage of the game is that now people are riveted on who McCain is and how he'd govern, out he comes to take the most important test of leadership of his candidacy . . . and then he picks Palin.

Another test failed. Kind of like when he graduated in the bottom 5% of his class.

MEANCHEF's picture

(post #50781, reply #2 of 109)

Her social views will sink her.

MadMom's picture

(post #50781, reply #3 of 109)

I'm sorry, but the woman's lack of knowledge will sink her. 



Not One More Day!
Not One More Dime! Not One More Life! Not One More Lie!

End the Occupation of Iraq -- Bring the Troops Home Now!

And Take Care of Them When They Get Here!

Napie's picture

(post #50781, reply #4 of 109)

Not with the group they were trying to shore up, she is perfect for that.  There are a lot of social conservatives out there and McCain was weak there, she helped that.

Biscuit's picture

(post #50781, reply #5 of 109)

But those are people who would have held their nose and voted for him anyway.


The question is - what did McCain do to the voters he was trying to sway to him; the indy women and the Hillary-women, and the Regan democrats?  IMO - and I could be wrong - he he lost those people, or most of them, with this pick.


BTW - here's an article from Gallup about those conservative Dems:


http://www.gallup.com/poll/109915/Obama-Regains-Support-Conservative-Democrats.aspx


Statesmen will invent cheap lies, putting blame upon the nation that is attacked, and every man will be glad of those conscience-soothing falsities, and will diligently study them, and refuse to examine any refutations of them; and thus he will by and by convince himself that the war is just, and will thank God for the better sleep he enjoys after this process of grotesque self-deception.
- Mark Twain

"When a stupid man is doing something he is ashamed of, he always declares that it is his duty."  - George Bernard Shaw

Napie's picture

(post #50781, reply #6 of 109)

Just look at the money the Republicans have raised in just two days due to her, better watch out...

kathymcmo's picture

(post #50781, reply #8 of 109)

McCain can't win with just the social conservatives vote, esp if Democratic turnout is high.


He has to win the independent vote, and that is a pro-choice bloc.


He has generated more enthusiasm among the base than was apparent before the Palin choice, but it's still not enough to overcome the enthusiasm on the other side.

MEANCHEF's picture

(post #50781, reply #10 of 109)

The thing that you need to realize is that 95% of the voters won't change their minds.  The nascar rednecks will vote for McCain no matter what and Hillary supporters will vote for Obama.  It is only the 5% swing voters that matter AND the numbers of each major faction who will actually get out and vote ( this is where the Obama folks will have the edge).

Napie's picture

(post #50781, reply #11 of 109)

I disagree, there were a lot of blue collar dem’s that liked Hillary and would have voted for her.  That group is very distrustful of Obama and Palin gives them someone much more like them than the elitist appearance that Obama projects.  Remember, it’s not how you view it; it is how THEY view it.   


 


Edited to add: I would have agreed about the turnout edge before, but Palin has invigorated the right, just look at the fund raising numbers in the last two days.


Edited 9/1/2008 6:29 pm ET by Napie

mangiaFagioli's picture

(post #50781, reply #16 of 109)

Let me see if I understand the group they're aiming at, is it the pro-life fundamentalist gun-toting pro-universal health care Hillary supporters? There might be a dozen out there.

MEANCHEF's picture

(post #50781, reply #38 of 109)

The blue collar dems will never support her extreme social views.

kathymcmo's picture

(post #50781, reply #39 of 109)

Today's state polls snapshot has Obama winning with 301 electoral votes to McCain's 224. North Dakota poll out today shows that state leaning toward Obama.

msm-s's picture

(post #50781, reply #40 of 109)

ND? now, that's saying something!

MadMom's picture

(post #50781, reply #41 of 109)

From your lips to God's ears!



Not One More Day!
Not One More Dime! Not One More Life! Not One More Lie!

End the Occupation of Iraq -- Bring the Troops Home Now!

And Take Care of Them When They Get Here!

kathymcmo's picture

(post #50781, reply #43 of 109)

It will be interesting to see if these numbers hold a week or so from now, after the effects of the GOP convention are factored in.


But from everything I read the Obama campaign really understands this is a state by state race, and are using the same strategy they used in racking up delegates in the caucuses (to build an insurmountable lead vs Hillary). They are building sophicated ground operations in every state, and it's been paying off in the state poll numbers.


The Dem ground organization is described by GOP people as formidable. This morning I read that the number of registered Democrats now far exceeds registered Republicans in Iowa and that accounts for that state being solidly blue now.


But there are still 60 days to go, that's a long time, campaign-wise.

thecooktoo's picture

(post #50781, reply #44 of 109)

Last night, Chris Mathews said on MSNBC that the latest Rasmussen tracking poll showed a dead heat at 42% each, with 13% undecided. 


Jim

Napie's picture

(post #50781, reply #42 of 109)

Wrong, those blue collar dem’s have exactly the SAME social views.  Remember the Reagan Democrats?  They were born right here in Macomb County Michigan and they are still the same as they have always been.  You forget that group is largely pro-life, pro-gun, hunters and sportsmen.  Yeah, she targets that group and they do not trust Obama.  

MEANCHEF's picture

(post #50781, reply #45 of 109)

Are they also book banning, homophobic Creationists?  Not so much, I think.

Marie Louise's picture

(post #50781, reply #46 of 109)

Good article in the Huffington Post about why the latest polls may be off.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/09/poll-madness-mccain-takes_n_125158.html

I feel better now, and I keep having to tell myself 1) The national polls don't really matter; it is a state-by-state race. 2) Obama beat the Clintons. As he once put it, "I'm pretty scrappy." He is a better campaigner than Al Gore or John Kerry, and McCain is a worse campaigner than just about anybody.


Edited 9/9/2008 6:33 pm by Marie Louise

Marie Louise's picture

(post #50781, reply #47 of 109)

One more take on what the polls show, this time from Chuck Todd.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/

kathymcmo's picture

(post #50781, reply #48 of 109)

Although the national polls are somewhat interesting I don't think they tell us much about who might win the election, because they don't reliably reflect the electoral college vote. I think the state polls that come out the first week of Oct, after the first presidential debate and the VP debate, will be more indicative of where the election's headed.


FWIW, the snapshot of the electoral vote, based on the most recent polls in each state, have Obama with 281 (11 more than he needs to win) and McCain with 230, and 27 a tossup in states where the electorate isn't leaning one way or the other.


This count reflects polls released today for OH, CO, FL, MD, VA, OK, PA, and WA.


http://www.electoral-vote.com/


What's of note is that FL is now a dead-even tie, Obama has gained ground there, despite Lieberman's best efforts during the GOP convention.


 

kathymcmo's picture

(post #50781, reply #12 of 109)

Exactly! Except that this election the swing voters seem to be a larger segment, closer to 9 percent than 5. They've just barely started paying attention to the campaign, or maybe will starting with the debates.

Biscuit's picture

(post #50781, reply #13 of 109)

Let's also not forget the "youth" vote, which everyone admits is nearly impossible to poll, because 99% of them only have cells and blackberrys instead of landlines.


This group, IF they vote, is predicted to be overwhelming for Obama.  The crutch is - they've never voted in large numbers before until this years primaries.  Can the Obama machine get them to the polls?  If he can, they might swing this election.


But how to poll them???  No one has been able to figure that out yet.


Statesmen will invent cheap lies, putting blame upon the nation that is attacked, and every man will be glad of those conscience-soothing falsities, and will diligently study them, and refuse to examine any refutations of them; and thus he will by and by convince himself that the war is just, and will thank God for the better sleep he enjoys after this process of grotesque self-deception.
- Mark Twain

"When a stupid man is doing something he is ashamed of, he always declares that it is his duty."  - George Bernard Shaw

kathymcmo's picture

(post #50781, reply #14 of 109)

Good point. I've heard that theory in elections past but the youth vote didn't really materialize, although I think it was up quite a bit in 2006. Maybe this will be the year?


My sister who teaches at Georgetown says she's never seen the students so involved and active as they are this election cycle. And my own nieces and nephews, only half of voting age, are all following this election quite attentively.


I've read that this generation that is in college now or just graduated is much more civic-minded than for the last 30 years.